The Hermann’s tortoise is likely the best researched reptile species of the Republic of North Macedonia. As such, crucial demographic parameters allowing for population simulations are readily available, allowing for an assessment based on population size reduction and geographic range criteria, rather than only the latter.

Known survival and fecundity data from Macedonian populations (see Habitat and Ecology section) were integrated in a deterministic pre-breeding population matrix model (Caswell, 2001) in order to simulate the relationship between population growth (λ) and adult survival under threats that can remove significant portions of a population, such as illegal harvest (see Threats section). Simulations demonstrate that a population is self-sufficient only when 89% or more of the adult individuals survive annually. When survival of adult males and females drops below this threshold, the population starts to decline. While relatively high survival rates in North Macedonia have been recorded (0.95-0.97) from populations residing in a protected area, compared to most populations that live under strong anthropocentric pressures these are likely an overestimation. Roadkill and especially illegal harvesting are likely to have a severe impact on survival in most populations (see Threats section). In such cases, assuming an adult survival value of 88% would be reasonable. In fact, taking into account natural sources of mortality, such as predation and wildfires, an average national survival probability of 88% may even seem conservative.

Given the generation time of 25 years (see Habitats and Ecology section), population reduction was calculated over 75 years (3 generations). Assuming a survival rate of 88%, a reduction of more than 30% is predicted within 75 years (30.3% after 64 years), which qualifies the national Hermann’s tortoise populations for the Vulnerable category under criterion A3d.

Western and central Balkan populations are under similar threats and likely decreasing (Ljubisavljević et al.2011; Nikolić et al. 2018); moreover, Hermann’s tortoises have limited dispersal capabilities and pronounced homing behavior (Bertolero et al. 2011), hugely reducing the chance of a rescue effect that could otherwise justify a downlisting of the category due to regional IUCN assessment corrections.

Having in mind the reduction in population size of western Europe’s tortoise subspecies (Testudo hermanni hermanni), it is not difficult to imagine that its populations likely went through a similar scenario – the apparently prosperous (numerous) extant Macedonian populations (Testudo hermanni boettgeri) are under pressures that have tipped them beyond the threshold of sustainability. The longevity of the species makes it difficult to witness this without proper demographic estimates and simulations. A continuously studied Macedonian island population can very well attest to this notion – it is currently among the densest Hermann’s tortoise populations in the world (~58 adult indivudals/ha in Bonnet et al., 2016) and therefore seemingly prosperous, but its fate has been sealed due to low adult female survival (Arsovski, 2018). A recent publication strongly corroborates these notions and similarly recommends an up-scaling of the IUCN categorization of the entire subspecies T. hermanni boettgeri to Vulnerable (Nikolić et al. 2018).

In order to avoid the scenario where Macedonian populations suffer the same fate as those from Western Europe (e.g. the Var population in France is classified as Endangered [Bertolero et al. 2011]) a timely assignment of the Vulnerable status could hopefully spark a chain of conservation events, nationally, that could ameliorate current trends by putting a halt on some of the devastating trade, imposing stricter control on farms, identifying more priority areas for protection, etc.

Golem Grad Hermann’s tortoise population assessment: CR A3b; B1ab (v)+B2ab(v)

A3b: Population simulations taking into account adult population size (from census data – 89 females and 993 males in Arsovski, 2018), population-specific juvenile age-specific survival (Arsovski et al. 2018), estimated adult female survival/mortality (0.86 vs. 0.97 in males in Arsovski [2018]) and the extremely biased sex ratio (Bonnet et al. 2016) estimate a population size reduction of more than 90% in the next 80 years (broadly three generations [75 years]), qualifying it for the Critically Endangered category.

B1ab (v)+B2ab(v): Both AOO and EOO are 0.2km² (the surface area of the island, that is entirely inhabited by tortoises) and the population is completely isolated – it is an island population of land tortoises with no probability of recolonization in case of extinction. Furthermore, there is a projected decline in mature individuals.

This population is of immense research significance, already evident from the amount of research revealing life-history parameters and evolutionary phenomena previously unknown for this species, and for the numerous theses published over its study. Moreover, it paints a very explicit picture of how a very dense (Bonnet et al. 2016) and seemingly prosperous population is well on its way to extinction – likely an occurrence on a much larger (Balkan) scale for this species, fueled by illegal traffic, road mortality and habitat degradation. Having all this in mind, along with the fact that this population is completely isolated, we believe it merits its own separate assessment and therefore conservation attention.

Globally and in Europe, this species has been assessed as Near threatened.

Large numbers of animals are captive-bred by hobbyists and distributed within the hobbyist community. In Macedonia animals are bred in tortoise farms. Currently six tortoise farms operate in the country (Nikolić et al. 2018).

Ljubisavljević et al. (2011) reported ~2.000.000.000 exported tortoises from Yugoslavia in a 41-year period; Export was apparently put under more control after CITES and strict regulations from the EU, but nevertheless, recently, 2017 and 2016 reports from the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning of North Macedonia testify to 35.147 and 25.250 exported Hermann’s tortoises from the country, respectively. CITES reports on earlier years broadly corroborate these notions (e.g. 31.522 and 25.946 individuals in 2016 and 2015, respectively [acquired from https://trade.cites.org/en/cites_trade]).

These reports also testify to the discrepancies in reported export numbers between sources and hints at the likelihood of the much more devastating proportions of unreported and unseized illegally trafficked animals. There are also often big discrepancies between numbers reported from importer and exporter countries (for more details please download and see some of the reports at https://trade.cites.org/en/cites_trade)

It is listed on Annex II of the Bern Convention and on Annex II and IV of the EU Habitats Directive. It appears on the list of nationally protected wild species.